1848 vs. 2011

The recent revolts in Tunisia and Egypt and ongoing unrest in Libya, Yemen, Algeria, Bahrain and other countries in North Africa and Southwest Asia reminded me of a bit of European history that might be worth revisiting.

In 1848 a wave of revolts and protests swept Europe.  A continent mostly ruled by autocratic monarchs was wracked by protest.  Vast mountains of politcal pamphlets were printed off and countless hours of speeches filled the air. Protests swept from France to the Russian East and throughout the Hapsburg Empire and the Mediterranean countries.  When the dust settled and the shouting tailed off, not much had changed on the surface:

• In France, the Revolution of 1848 led to the formation of theSecond Republic, which would be overthrown a mere four years later by Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte.
• German agitation for a unified state would remain unfulfilled until 1870.
• The Hungarian portion of the Austro-Hungarian Empire made a power play and attempted to separate herself from Austria, but after intervention by Tsar Nicholaas I at the head of a large army and a brutal martial law period, this revolt fizzled out.
• Switzerland had experienced a short civil war in 1847 and in 1848 approved a new constitution turning it into a federal republic, limiting some of the cantonal authority.
• Sicily rose up against the Bourbons, but a year a half later was reconquered.
• Mainland Italy was swept by war and revolt that saw the Vatican and the various European power players that had divided Italy up for their own ends beaten back temporarily, though by 1849, the Roman Republic, along with Sicily, had been reconquered.  Italian unification would occur in 1871.

The current pattern of events in the Islamic Autocracies seems to rhyme with the events in Europe of 1848.  I’m sure that Mark Galasiewski and the Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast has much more to say about these revolts and he’ll have the wave patterns and context to give you more insight into the magnitude of the emotional wave driving events North Africa and Southwest Asia.

The most likely outcome of the string of revolts we are seeing, and any others to come (Saudi Arabia, anyone?), will be the co-opting (at the fringes) of portions of the movement or the crushing the uprising. That said, the memes that we see being nurtured in these revolts - democracy (probably meaning different things in each country), an end to crony capitalism, opposition to oppressive security apparati - could very well come back to haunt or inspire these countries in future eras by defining political debates, sparking organized resistance groups or just propelling otherwise ordinary individuals into political or social prominence. Any concessions made to co-opt the Middle Class or segments of society could also opent he door for further demands. These memes, and some of the young people being beaten, shot at or water-cannoned will be energized by the waves of positive and negative mood that will sweep the region in the years and decades to come.

As a final thought, if you think that failed revolutionary movements have little effect on history, please note that the Communist Manifesto was published in 1848.  The Soviet Union was founded in 1922.  The wheels of time grind slowly, but they grind fine…

Muslim Brotherhood Could Win in Egypt Protests, And Why Obama Shouldn't Worry | The Daily Beast

The Muslim Brotherhood was the foundation of al-Qaeda and collaborated with the Nazis in WWII. It is regularly tied to violence against Coptics in Egypt and supports a single Islamic state in the Middle East ruled by Sharia law, etc.

Shouldn’t worry, yeah right. 

Bloody and bruised: the journalist caught in Egypt unrest | The Guardian

Along with nearby protesters I fled down the street before stopping at what appeared to be a safe distance. A few ordinarily dressed young men were running in my direction. Two came towards me and threw out punches, sending me to the ground. I was hauled back up by the scruff of the neck and dragged towards the advancing police lines.

My captors were burly and wore leather jackets – up close I could see they were amin dowla, plainclothes officers from Egypt’s notorious state security service. All attempts I made to tell them in Arabic and English that I was an international journalist were met with more punches and slaps; around me I could make out other isolated protesters receiving the same brutal treatment and choking from the teargas.

We were hustled towards a security office on the edge of the square. As I approached the doorway of the building other plainclothes security officers milling around took flying kicks and punches at me, pushing me to the floor on several occasions only to drag me back up and hit me again. I spotted a high-ranking uniformed officer, and shouted at him that I was a British journalist. He responded by walking over and punching me twice. “Fuck you and fuck Britain,” he yelled in Arabic.

Radical Islamists Kill at Least 21 People in New Year Attack

The bombing targeted Christian worshippers gathering to mark the new year at the Coptic Orthodox church in the northern city of Alexandria. At least 17 people were killed and a further 43 injured.

Egyptian officials say there are indications the blast involved “foreign elements”. The Interior Ministry said the circumstances of the incident and other recent attacks “clearly indicate that foreign elements undertook planning and execution”.

CNN has the video.

King Tut exhibit coming to St. Paul Science Museum | Star Tribune

An exhibition featuring authentic artifacts from the tomb of King Tut is coming to the Twin Cities.

The Science Museum of Minnesota announced Wednesday that “Tutankhamun: The Golden King and the Great Pharaohs” will debut on Feb. 18. The exhibit will run through Sept. 5, 2011.

This will be the first time that the Upper Midwest has hosted artifacts from Tut’s tomb or objects belonging to the king, said Science Museum spokeswoman Kim Ramsden.

“Tutankhamun’s magic still captures the hearts of people all over the world, even though more than 85 years have passed since the discovery of his amazing tomb,” Zahi Hawass, secretary general of Egypt’s Supreme Council of Antiquities, said in a statement.

At 16,000 square feet, the Tut display will be the largest exhibition in Science Museum history.

This is going to be a pretty awesome exhibit. 

Casting of Angelina Jolie as Cleopatra fuels race debate | Examiner

The news that Angelina Jolie has been hired to play Cleopatra in an upcoming biopic has some in the African-American community fuming that Jolie is “too white” to play the famous Egyptian pharaoh.

‘WHY NOT A BLACK ACTRESS?’

A recent Essence.com commentary entitled Another White Actress to Play Cleopatra?insists:

“Honestly, I don’t care how full Angelina Jolie’s lips are, how many African children she adopts, or how bronzed her skin will become for the film, I firmly believe this role should have gone to a black woman.”

This makes me so fucking angry. Not because they chose Jolie to play Cleopatra, but because of the reaction that is coming from the black community in America. I am tired of this revisionist history in which the ancient Egyptians were black. They weren’t. How do we know this? They left paintings of themselves all over. Guess what, none of them were black.

Moreover, Cleopatra wasn’t even Egyptian. During that time of Egypt’s history, Egypt was ruled by the Ptolemys, which hailed from Macedonia. For those of you who failed World Civ. back in high school (ie, everyone wanting this role to be played by a black person), Macedonia was an ancient kingdom in the northeastern part of the Greek peninsula. Last time I checked, they were considered to be “white”. Then again, I’m considered to be “white” too, even though I am Egyptian… 

Telecom Egypt loses revenue, government helps by banning international VoIP | Engadget

State-owned Telecom Egypt hasn’t been doing well lately, last week announcing 2009 voice call revenues dropped 13 percent from the year prior. It’s not hard to see cheap/free VoIP calling as a primary reason, and so what do you do if you’re a state-run commercial enterprise trying to make a profit? Why, you make the competition illegal of course.

Does this affect the desktop version of Skype as well? My dad is probably going to be pretty miffed.